The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Sunday issued a glacial lake outburst flood (Glof) alert for Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for the first week of August.
Meanwhile, commuters were stranded in various parts of GB as road access to several areas remained cut off for the fifth consecutive day due to flash floods and Glofs.
In continuation of the alert issued on July 17, the combined effect of warm thermal regime and ongoing intermittent precipitation was likely to continue across GB and KP till the first week of August, the PMD said.
“This significant warming with intermittent rain will substantially accelerate snow and ice melt in the glaciated valleys of these regions,” it added.
Consequently, the Met Office said that water levels in river streams of these valleys were likely to remain high, the existing glacial lakes might rapidly expand with an increase in their water levels, and new glacial lakes were likely to form due to a high volume of melted water.
“The possible impacts include: vulnerable downstream locations and low-lying areas adjacent to stream/riverbeds may face a high risk of sudden high flows.”
The Met Office also forecast flash flooding in vulnerable locations and narrow valleys.
“The rapid expansion of glacial lakes can destabilise their natural ice and/or moraine damming, potentially triggering Glof incidents,” it said.
A Glof refers to the sudden release of water and debris from a glacial lake, potentially resulting in loss of lives, property, and livelihoods in mountain communities. Over 7.1 million people in GB and KP are vulnerable to the phenomenon, according to the climate change ministry.
Pakistan is home to over 13,032 glaciers, the largest reservoir of glaciers outside of the polar regions. However, experts have warned that about 10,000 glaciers in Chitral and GB have been reported to be receding due to climate change-induced temperature rise.
The PMD further warned that the thawing of permafrost, combined with excess surface water, could trigger the flow of heavy mud and debris down mountain slopes.
It noted there was an increase in the likelihood of landslides in steep terrains.
The PMD also suggested people in snow-bound and glaciated valleys to take certain precautionary measures, advising them to stay away from riverbanks, stream beds, and local nullahs, along with monitoring these water bodies closely for any gradual or sudden changes in water levels.
Refrain from camping, trekking, or staying near riverbanks, streams, glacial lakes and narrow mountain valleys; avoid steep slopes and unstable terrain where melting snow could trigger landslides or debris flows, it added.
It further advised maintaining close coordination with Disaster Risk Community Based Management Committees (CBDRMCs) for localised guidance and emergency protocols.
“The disaster management authorities and relevant line departments should ensure alertness 24/7 and take necessary measures to avoid any untoward situation.”
Commuters stranded in GB due to blocked roads
Meanwhile, GB authorities were installing an iron bridge along the Baltistan Highway to restore traffic on an immediate basis as flash floods and Glofs continued to damage highways and hamper restoration efforts.
The flooding, driven by unusually high temperatures and accelerated glacier melt, has disrupted relief operations and delayed the restoration of road links to affected areas.
In a statement issued on Sunday, recently elected GB Chief Minister Amjad Hussain directed the immediate restoration of all affected highways and communication links across the region, including the Baltistan Highway.
He added that as part of the restoration work on the Sassi, Haramush, Ansar Camp and other areas along the Baltistan Highway, a temporary iron Bailey bridge was being installed to restore the flow of traffic as soon as possible.
The GB CM said the bridge installation would be completed today so that the highway may be opened for traffic.
He also directed the regional home secretary to ensure orderly flow of traffic after the installation of the Bailey bridge and to ensure the presence of other relevant departments, including the police.
Soldiers of the Pakistan Army, engineers from the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), labourers, officials of the National Highway Authority (NHA), Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA), and other relevant organisations were working day and night tirelessly, the chief minister asserted.
The authorities were further directed to provide food, medical assistance and all other necessary facilities to the stranded passengers.
Recent floods in the area had swept away an important bridge, blocking the road, disconnecting road access to four districts of Baltistan for the last four days.
GB has recorded 89 events of flash floods, mudflows, river erosion, cloudbursts, and Glofs this monsoon season, according to the disaster summary issued by GBDMA on Sunday.
These incidents destroyed 130 houses; damaged another 162 houses, 20 bridges and 18.20 kilometres of roads; left 230 persons as internally displaced people (IDPs); and resulted in the loss of 73 livestock.
GBDMA Director General Ataur Rehman Kakar had told Dawn on Saturday that heavy machinery had been deployed and restoration work was continuing round the clock to reopen blocked roads in the region.
The Baltistan Road, Haramosh Road, Naltar Road, Hisper Road, Astore Valley Road at Khachak and Hushe Valley Road at Rout Longba in Ghanche district remain closed.
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