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Modest gains in GDP, per capita income indicate recovery in output, government says

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income increased in dollar terms at a modest pace, indicating a recovery in the country’s overall output compared to the previous year, the government said on Wednesday.

It was revealed that the country’s economy is expected to grow by 3.70 per cent in the current fiscal year, a revision from earlier projections of 4pc, suggesting that Pakistan will fall short of its GDP target.

The provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry and services in FY26 are 2.89pc, 3.51pc and 4.09pc, respectively.

The 117th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) was held in the federal capital on Wednesday at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Headquarters, Statistics House. The secretary of the Ministry of Planning and Development chaired the meeting.

The committee approved the quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1 (revised), Q2 (revised), and Q3 (provisional) during FY 2025-26 and annual growth rates for 2023-24 (final), 2024-25 (revised) and 2025-26 (provisional).

The size of the economy went up to $452.1 billion in FY26 from $410.96bn in FY25, mainly driven by growth in the services sector, followed by industry and livestock.

The per capita income slightly increased to $1,901 in FY26 from $1,824 in FY25. The projection is on the 2023 population census.

However, it was $1,551 in FY23, $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21.

This suggests a deterioration in the standard of living and well-being across almost all segments of society, with no tangible increase in personal incomes.

It may lead to decreased disposable income, limiting individuals’ ability to afford goods and services, save, or invest.

Meanwhile, the NAC also approved the updated growth rates for Q1 and Q2 of 2025-26 at 3.92pc and 4.05pc, compared with 3.63pc and 3.89pc, respectively, presented at the 116th meeting of the NAC.

The GDP has shown a provisional growth of 3.99pc during Q3 of the fiscal year 2025-26. The final and revised growth rates for FY24 and FY25 are 2.62pc and 3.18pc respectively.

In agriculture, important crops have shown modest growth of 0.65pc due to mixed trends in the production of wheat (+4.3pc from 28.396 to 29.605 million tonnes), maize (-2.68pc from 9.037m to 8.794m tonnes), rice (+2.80pc from 9.723m to 9.998m tonnes), sugarcane (+6.20pc from 84.24m to 89.45m tonnes) and cotton (-0.5pc from 7.084m to 7.052m bales).

Despite a high growth of 19.74pc in the previous year, other crops have shown a growth of 2.43pc due to high growth in grams (50.4pc), potatoes (27.6pc), mangoes (11.6pc), bananas (30.8pc), turmeric (25.1pc), and chilies (9.2pc). Cotton ginning and miscellaneous components registered a modest growth of 0.07pc due to the low production of the cotton crop.

Livestock has increased by 3.75pc as compared to 2.95pc due to a 3.46pc increase in output and 4.5pc decrease in green fodder. Forestry and fishing posted a normal growth of 2.02pc and 1.66pc, respectively.

Industry in 2025-26, has shown a growth of 3.51pc provisionally. Despite an increase in the production of coal (4.52pc), the mining and quarrying industry has posted a modest growth of 0.38pc because of a decrease in the production of natural gas (-2.63pc), crude oil (-0.38pc) and other minerals.

Large scale manufacturing, which is based on the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) (July-March), has witnessed a growth of 6.11pc with mixed trends in the production of various groups mainly due to positive contribution in food (9.77pc), tobacco (11.70pc), petroleum products (10.92pc), rubber products (14.26pc), electrical equipment (11.87pc), automobiles (61.66pc), transport equipment (39.93pc), furniture (20.45pc), and other manufacturing (football) (23.06pc).

The electricity, gas and water supply industry has contracted by 10.63pc primarily due to the high base effect of FY 2024-25, i.e. +29.60pc, lower energy subsidies and slower growth in the output of Wapda and other companies.

Despite a high base growth of 8.77pc during last year, the construction industry increased by 5.73pc due to increased construction-related expenditures by the private sector and general government.

The services industry has also shown a growth of 4.09pc during FY26 with positive contributions from all the constituents, i.e., wholesale and retail trade (3.71pc), transport and storage (2.31pc), information and communication (7.52pc), public administration and social security (8.54pc), education (5.23pc), human health and social work (6.85pc), and other private services (3.69pc).



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