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Here is what analysts have to say about the Pak-Saudi defence agreement

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a landmark defence agreement on Wednesday during a visit to the latter country by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, marking what is being considered the most significant upgrade in Pakistan-Saudi defence relations in decades.

The announcement was made in a joint statement by Islamabad and Riyadh. The statement said the pact “reflects the shared commitment of both nations to enhance their security and to achieve security and peace in the region and the world”.

“[It] aims to develop aspects of defence cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression,” the statement said.

While not many details have been shared yet, the key driver of Wednesday’s agreement appears to be the principle that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.“

The two countries have long shared a multifaceted relationship rooted in strategic military cooperation, mutual economic interests, and shared Islamic heritage.

It is important to note that the agreement comes in the wake of Israel’s recent strike on Qatar, which has raised concerns for the overall security of the Middle East.

Former envoy Maleeha Lodhi termed the agreement a “significant development”, noting that it has “far-reaching implications” for both countries.

Speaking to Geo News, the former ambassador said, “Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a defence cooperation for a long time, and their diplomatic relations have always remained strong; however, with this agreement, the relationship has been shifted to a qualitatively different place.”

“At this point, it is clear that Pakistan has taken up the role of a security provider, not just for Saudi Arabia but for the Middle East.”

Lodhi believed that “it is important to take into consideration the timing and the context of this agreement, since in the aftermath of Israeli aggression against Qatar, Arab countries have started to look elsewhere for security guarantees.”

“The United States’ role as a security guarantor has come under scrutiny as of late, and its credibility has been severely damaged,” Lodhi said.

“The agreement may have been in the works for some time, but it is important to look at the context.”

She added that, “currently, it is hard to say any more, and a full assessment can only be made when more details come to light.”

On the question of India’s place in the situation, she said: “It is clear that if Pakistan continues to strengthen its defence like this, its opponent cannot be happy about it, but we have to wait and see what sort of reaction will come from India.”

South Asia Analyst Michael Kugelman, in a post on X, said that, with the inking of the agreement, Pakistan now finds itself “in a very good place”.

Kugelman noted that, “This pact would not deter India from attacking Pakistan. But with 3-key powers — China, Turkey, and now KSA — fully on [Pakistan’s] side, [Pakistan] is in a very good place”.

Former Senator Mushahid Hussain, on the question of India’s place in the situation, said: “India is in a state of shock, they are taken by surprise.”

Mushahid, while speaking to Geo News, hailed the agreement as “the single most important military and diplomatic initiative in the past 50 years, after the Lahore Islamic summit.”

Noting the significance of the agreement, he pointed out that “this is the first defence deal between two muslim countries.” Mushahid added that “Saudi Arabia is not just any muslim country but one of the richest countries in the world, with a strong diplomatic influence.”

On the matter of Israel, Husasain noted that the pact will serve as a deterrent for Israel; “With Pakistan’s military capability and Arab economic strength combined, Israel can’t do anything.”

According to the former senator, the recent four-day military conflict between India and Pakistan “showed our will, skill and capability that we can defend our Arab friends just as well,” positing Pakistan as a regional security guarantor. He also speculated that the agreement could have implications for terrorist elements within the country, particularly the TTP.

Former diplomat Hussain Haqani, in a post on X, noted the use of the term “strategic” in the agreement, saying, “‘Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement’ implies that it [covers] nuclear and missile defence. Pakistan has always used the term ‘strategic assets’ for its nuclear & missile programs.”

In a separate tweet, he said, “Most likely, Pakistan will now be able to buy US weapons it needs, with Saudi money, which [the] Trump administration seems willing to sell. Similar purchases occurred in the 1970s when the US Congress was unwilling to approve loans under Foreign Military Funding (FMF) for Pakistan.”

Analyst Uzair Younus noted that the agreement has cemented “Pakistan’s role as a net security provider in the Arabian peninsula.”

Journalist Iftikhar Firdous branded the pact “symbolically powerful and strategically consequential,” saying that Pakistan will now be seen as a “direct deterrent to Israel”.

“For Saudi Arabia, it’s a hedge against uncertainty and a signal of independence. Even though the pact does not officially include nuclear guarantees [at least from the available information], Pakistan’s arsenal casts a deterrence shadow.”

“This gives Saudi Arabia a de facto “nuclear umbrella” without formally breaching non-proliferation norms,” he said, cautioning that the move “increases the chance that local conflicts could spiral into regionalised wars with nuclear undertones.”

The agreement has brought Pakistan into the Arab world and its politics “like never before,” he said.


Header Image: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif poses for a group photo with Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir at Yamama Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on September 17. — Photo via Prime Minister’s Office



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